AGP Executive Report

SME Export Pressure: UK SMEs keep driving exports, but Ebury warns currency swings are squeezing margins as more firms trade abroad. Digital Readiness Gap: A Zoho-commissioned study finds only 35% of UK businesses have “good” digital health, with small firms lagging and AI returns uneven. AI Skills Payoff: New research says AI is not cutting jobs overall, but it is rewarding advanced skills fast, with bigger wage premiums for AI-ready workers. Local Growth & Finance: Cumbria SMEs are “going all in” on AI for marketing, while UK business leaders say confidence hinges on cutting business costs. Policy & Compliance Burden: India’s MSMEs face a second wave of pressure from EU CBAM, sustainability rules, and data compliance—plus a push to use AI to solve delayed-payment problems. Consumer Protection for SMEs: Ghana’s consumer protection bill is urged to protect smaller, especially women-owned, businesses from weak enforcement under fragmented laws. Cross-border Payments Upgrade: Swift’s new retail transfer framework is rolling out via Bank of America and J.P. Morgan, aiming for clearer fees and faster, full-value arrivals for small recipients. Energy Transition for Business: Fiscal policy for 2027 is framed around simpler, fairer taxation and less tax on labor to boost investment and legal work.

SME Funding Shock in Transnistria: Transnistria’s “Support and Development of Entrepreneurship” programme is being cancelled due to a cash crunch, leaving hundreds of local entrepreneurs without planned assistance. Founder Exodus in the UK: A new wave of UK founders is reportedly leaving as tax, hiring risk, visa delays and political churn erode confidence in building businesses at home. Inheritance Tax Drives Life Insurance Demand (UK): UK savers are buying more life cover ahead of April’s pension inheritance tax changes, with Royal London warning some small business families may face selling firms to pay bills. Compliance Burden for Europe-linked SMEs: India’s MSMEs are being told to prepare for tougher global compliance and sustainability rules, including EU CBAM, plus data and digital regulation—turning “handholding” into a competitiveness issue. EU Market Access via AI Translation: A guide argues AI is cutting the cost of multilingual selling across the EU, lowering barriers for smaller exporters—though nuance still matters. UK EV Grants for Small Firms (Spain): Spain’s Auto+ Plan opens with retroactive support up to €5,500 for private buyers, self-employed people and small businesses switching to EVs. Payments Tech for Cross-border SMEs: SWIFT’s new international transfer initiative is rolling out with Bank of America and J.P. Morgan, promising faster, clearer costs for people and small businesses sending money abroad.

EU SME energy & transport support: Spain opened its Auto+ Plan for electric vehicles, offering retroactive grants up to €5,500 for private buyers, self-employed people, small businesses and micro-companies, with applications online on a first-come basis. SME growth via tourism visibility: A Canary Islands guide urges local firms to get found early in holiday planning by tightening Google Maps listings, reviews and social media, linking discovery to bookings. Skills pipeline for small firms: UK training provider Reagit backs Andy Burnham’s push to put practical skills on par with academia, arguing vocational routes and apprenticeships must be treated as real options for employers. Retrofit and reuse for SMEs: RIBA’s 2026 Reinvention Award shortlist spotlights retrofit projects that keep buildings productive—useful inspiration for smaller contractors and community hubs. AI translation for exporters: A report says AI is cutting the cost of selling across the EU’s many languages, lowering barriers that previously priced out smaller exporters—though nuance still matters. Business finance access (outside Europe, but relevant): Nigeria’s NACCIMA launched a $150m offshore financing portal with loans from $10m and single-digit rates for eligible sectors, requiring audited accounts and ESG compliance. Branding & legal risk: A US trademark dispute involving Buc-ee’s and a small Ohio shop shows how quickly legal fights can escalate and how local support can rally around SMEs.

Tourism Marketing for SMEs: Canary Islands local businesses are being urged to get found earlier in the travel journey by tightening their Google Maps listings, review presence, social media activity and simple booking sites—because visitors plan where to eat and shop online before they arrive. Skills & Apprenticeships: In the UK, training provider Reagit backs Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s push to give practical skills more weight, arguing vocational routes and apprenticeships must be treated as real options to tackle a record NEET figure. Coastal Access Fight: Italy’s “spiaggia libera” access rules are being challenged in practice as private lidos use barriers to block the walk from free beaches to paid areas—an issue framed as class inequality over shared coastline space. US Tariffs Spillover: A coalition of 25 US states sued the Trump administration over new forced-labor tariffs on 60 trading partners, warning the move is a legal workaround that will hit families and businesses with higher costs. Construction Trade Branding: Stanley launched a Europe-wide “ALL BUILD. NO BULL.” campaign with a talking toolbox character aimed at small residential contractors, pushing straightforward value over marketing hype. Payments Infrastructure: SWIFT’s new retail cross-border scheme is moving into live use, with City Bank executing fast, full-value transfers across multiple countries—relevant for SMEs selling internationally. SME Finance (EU-backed): The EIB Global partnership with Uganda’s Centenary Bank is funding about 24,000 micro-enterprises, with a strong focus on women-led and rural businesses.

Cross-Border Payments Upgrade: City Bank says it has become the first bank in Bangladesh to execute live transactions under SWIFT’s new retail cross-border payments scheme, enabling faster, full-value remittances and e-commerce payouts across 17 countries. SME Export Readiness: A new analysis argues many MSMEs still lack “export intelligence,” noting only 1–2% of Indian MSMEs export meaningfully versus 20–25% in Germany—an issue policymakers and trade bodies are now trying to tackle. Energy Costs for Small Firms: EDF and Heliotec have launched a partnership aimed at helping small businesses cut energy bills, pushing practical efficiency support rather than just advice. EU Digital Rules Pressure: An opinion piece warns EU digital regulation is creating trade barriers that hurt competition and cross-border tech business—raising fresh questions for SMEs selling into Europe. Tariff Shock Fallout: US states (including multiple Democratic-led ones) filed major court challenges to Trump’s latest forced-labor tariffs, arguing they exceed legal authority and will hit businesses and prices. Local Business Boost: Belfast’s St George’s Market is running a week-long Fleadh Cheoil programme, drawing footfall for traders and makers during the event. SME Finance in Africa: The EIB-backed programme in Uganda reports support for 24,000 micro-enterprises, with women and rural businesses taking the lead.

Tariff Shock for Trade-Dependent SMEs: 25 mostly Democratic US states sued the Trump administration to block new 10%–12.5% forced-labour tariffs on 60 trading partners, including the EU, arguing the move is unlawful and a “pretext” to replace duties struck down by the Supreme Court—raising fresh uncertainty for importers and small firms that rely on stable input prices. Energy Cost Relief for Small Firms: EDF Small Business and Heliotec launched a four-month trial for 1,000+ eligible customers, using an AI energy platform to spot inefficiencies and deliver site-specific, practical recommendations without extra hardware. Currency Risk Insurance for Exporters: Swiss shears maker Felco pitched a pooled “Swiss Export Shield” fund to help exporters cushion sharp franc swings, aiming to be cheaper than traditional hedging. Cybersecurity Pressure on Business: JPMorgan warned AI is shrinking the time attackers have to exploit software flaws—median exploit time down to about a day—forcing faster patching and response planning. UK Procurement Access Gap: UKRBA says SMEs risk missing billions in contracts because social-value and “responsible business” documentation requirements are too complex and costly, even when firms already act ethically. Workforce Mobility Signal: Britain’s young workers are leaving for higher pay and housing affordability abroad, with Australia highlighted as a top destination.

Tariff Fight: 25 Democratic-led US states sued to block Trump’s latest tariffs on goods from 60 trading partners, including the EU, arguing the move exceeds legal authority and follows earlier tariff setbacks. Small-Business Pressure: A union landlord in New York is trying to evict six mom-and-pop shops from a Third Avenue block, raising fears for local independent retailers. Energy Costs & Planning: Montana residents and advocates challenged NorthWestern Energy’s long-term power plan, saying it underplays climate impacts and the effect of data centers on household bills. EU Trade Rules for SMEs: The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is set to reshape agricultural trade access; large and medium firms must comply from Dec 30, 2026, while micro and small enterprises get until June 2027. Cashflow Strain in Europe: In Bulgaria, payment periods between companies are getting longer, with agriculture/agribusiness and construction among the worst hit. Payments & Growth: ANZ completed its takeover of Worldline’s 51% stake in Worldline Australia, giving it full control of merchant payments for SMBs. Local Retail Reality Check: A Newcastle bakery says it’s selling out daily after announcing it will close later this month, showing how quickly demand can swing for independents.

SME Energy Costs: The IEA says SMEs are stuck between high energy bills and weak ability to invest in efficiency, leaving them exposed to price shocks and hurting competitiveness. Cyber & Compliance Spend: New research flags fast growth in IoT security and next-generation firewalls, driven by connected-device risk and tougher rules—an IT cost pressure that hits smaller firms too. AI Skills Gap: A new worker survey finds many employees use generative AI, but formal employer training lags badly, raising the risk that SMEs can’t keep up with practical AI adoption. UK High Streets & Jobs: Commentary argues recent UK policy is making hiring harder for small firms, while unemployment and youth job access remain key concerns. Tourism Pressure on Independents: A UK seaside town with 560 independent shops reports worsening conditions, with local decisions and cost-of-living pressures squeezing self-employed businesses. EU Trade Rules for SMEs: Coverage on the India–EU FTA highlights work plans and annexures aimed at easing CBAM compliance for exporters, with knock-on effects for small manufacturers. Financing for Growth: Nigeria’s NACCIMA launches a $150m offshore expansion facility with single-digit rates via a digital portal, targeting manufacturing and other priority sectors.

SME Finance & Inclusion: Europe’s push for tougher financial rules is being framed as a way to unlock investable financial inclusion, but the real test is whether compliance capabilities translate into access for underserved customers. Digital Skills Gap: A new survey finds workers are using generative AI far more than they’re being trained to use it well, raising a practical skills crunch for employers. AI in Hiring vs AI in Work: Cyprus has high consumer AI use but low business adoption, while employers still struggle to fill thousands of roles—suggesting a labour mismatch more than an “AI job theft” story. Local Retail Pressure: Britain’s seaside towns with large independent shop scenes report mounting strain from costs, policy changes, and uncertainty—highlighting how fragile high-street trading conditions remain. EU Trade & Labour Standards: A debate over textile labour rules warns against “collective punishment by reputation,” as the EU tightens monitoring and withdrawal routes under its GSP changes. SME Export Support (Africa): NACCIMA has opened applications for a $150m offshore expansion facility aimed at long-term, single-digit-rate financing for Nigerian firms. Energy Costs & Bills: Commentary on electricity “system loss” charge changes argues costs may simply reappear under different tariff names, keeping pressure on household budgets.

SME Jobs & Skills Gap: Cyprus is seeing a mismatch between AI adoption and hiring needs: 44.2% of people used generative AI in 2025, but only 9% of businesses do, even as employers struggle to fill nearly 14,000 roles and expect 11,700 recruits a year until 2032. Local Cost-of-Living Politics: In the UK, South Cotswolds’ MP says more must be done for jobs and young people, pointing to rising costs and uncertainty hitting hiring, and calls for reversing “jobs tax” measures. EU Red Tape Debate: A new look at EU “simplification” warns that constant regulatory changes may not make the business environment more predictable, even if bureaucracy is being reduced on paper. SME Finance & Trade Support: The EBRD is backing Kenya’s SME sector with a €100m financing facility focused on gender and green, while the India-EU trade deal coverage highlights CBAM work plans and annexures aimed at easing compliance for smaller exporters. Digital Tools for Small Firms: UPS is rolling out new digital shipping tools for small-business customers, and Cyprus/Europe-wide AI adoption is increasingly tied to practical workforce and operations needs.

SME Finance Boost: The EBRD has launched a $100m financing facility with KCB Bank Kenya to expand credit access for SMEs, with a focus on women-led and green businesses—aimed at tackling the usual barriers like collateral and weak records. Trade Rules for Small Exporters: India-EU talks on an FTA include a dedicated CBAM annexure and work plan to ease compliance for SMEs, covering flexibility, emissions verification, embedded carbon calculations, and how to account for carbon pricing already paid in India. EU Business Environment: A new analysis questions whether the EU’s push to cut bureaucracy is actually improving predictability, warning that constant regulatory changes can still leave firms struggling to plan. Cyber for Small Firms: A roundup of DNS security tools highlights options for SMBs and MSPs, stressing protection against phishing, malware, and tunneling at the DNS layer. Local Cost Pressure in the UK: Coverage around Britain’s cost-of-living measures spotlights VAT cuts on household electricity bills and what it could mean for small businesses and households. War Disruption Hits Supply Chains: Reports on Ukraine drone strikes on Russia’s Wildberries warehouses show how online retail logistics can be hit fast, with knock-on effects for sellers and prices.

SME Finance Boost (Europe-linked): The EBRD launched a $100m financing facility with KCB Bank Kenya to expand credit for SMEs, with 30% earmarked for women-led firms and 30% for green investments, plus support to help borrowers become more “bankable.” Trade Rules for Small Exporters: India-EU talks on the FTA added a dedicated CBAM annexure, aiming to simplify compliance for SMEs exporters via flexibility, recognition of domestic carbon pricing, and a roadmap for verification and embedded-carbon calculations. Shipping Made Easier for SMEs: UPS rolled out new pickup management tools, faster label creation, and improved app/dashboard features to cut complexity for small-business shippers. Energy Storage Industry Step-Up (Spain): Spanish battery maker Ionly started serial production of LFP residential batteries in Valencia using a semi-automated line, lifting capacity potential from 20 MWh to 100 MWh as it scales. High-Stakes Policy for UK High Streets: UK fashion and retail groups are pressing new PM Andy Burnham to extend promised business rates relief and support, warning of continued closures and job losses. Local Business Disruption (Ukraine/Russia): Ukraine’s strikes on Wildberries warehouses underline how online retail supply chains can become wartime targets, with knock-on risks for sellers and logistics.

SME Finance Boost: The EBRD launched a $100m financing facility with KCB Bank Kenya to expand credit for SMEs, with 30% earmarked for women-led firms and 30% for eligible green investments, plus monitoring and advisory support to help smaller businesses become more bankable. Carbon Tax Compliance for Exporters: India’s EU FTA talks include a dedicated CBAM annexure and work plan aimed at easing carbon-border compliance for SMEs, including flexibility if EU rules change and mechanisms to account for carbon pricing already paid in India. Trade Barriers Hit MSMEs: ECOWAS MPs pushed to dismantle regional trade bottlenecks after visits and hearings in Benin, where entrepreneurs described border harassment and bureaucracy that stall growth for micro, small and medium firms. UK High Street Pressure: UK fashion retail is warning that new PM Andy Burnham’s early support may not go far enough, as research links administrations to more empty high-street units and job losses. Local Business Disruption: Spain’s Ceuta border crisis is escalating fast, with tens of thousands crossing in a day and protests disrupting local life—raising fresh uncertainty for small traders and hospitality. Digital Infrastructure Fight: London’s Brick Lane plans include a data centre and offices, approved despite campaigners warning it will damage the area’s character and hurt local businesses.

EU Policy & Compliance: The EU’s Digital Omnibus has updated the AI Act compliance roadmap, pushing many high-risk AI obligations to 2027/2028 and expanding the AI Office’s enforcement role—important for SMEs building or using AI tools. AI Infrastructure: The EU has launched tenders for up to seven “AI Gigafactories” with €10bn public funding to unlock local high-performance computing for start-ups, researchers and public buyers. Trade & Carbon Costs: India-EU talks include a CBAM annexure with a work plan aimed at easing embedded-carbon verification for SMEs, including recognition of verifiers and engagement on carbon pricing. Regional Trade Barriers (West Africa): ECOWAS MPs are pressing to dismantle border bottlenecks and harassment that are stalling MSME growth, after field visits in Benin highlighted harder intra-regional exports than shipping to Europe/Canada. UK High Street Pressure: A UK MP is calling for business rates cuts (20%) and VAT reduction (to 10% for hospitality) to help small firms survive and revive town centres. Business Continuity & Succession: Japan’s aging owner crisis is pushing more SMEs toward M&A and “search fund” style succession, reshaping how family businesses plan their next chapter.

EU AI Push: The EU has launched a call for up to seven “AI Gigafactories,” backed by as much as €10bn in public funding, aiming to give start-ups and SMEs cheaper access to frontier computing. Trade & Carbon Rules for SMEs: India’s EU FTA text includes a dedicated CBAM annexure with a work plan to ease compliance for MSME exporters, including verification support and engagement on carbon pricing. SME Exporter Relief (CBAM): Officials say the CBAM annexure is built around flexibility for India, recognised verifiers, and ways to offset carbon prices as India develops its own carbon pricing. Digital Market Access: A Madagascan vanilla family business, Malagasy Vanilla, says Temu’s Local Seller Program helped it shift from wholesale to direct-to-consumer sales across 14 European markets, cutting shipping costs and boosting sales. UK Cost-of-Living Measure: Britain’s government has cut VAT on household electricity to 0% for the year, aiming to lower the Ofgem price cap and ease bills for families. SME Investment Mood (Malta): Malta’s SME barometer reports 78% of owners are uncertain or unwilling to invest in the coming months, with only 22% seeing it as a good time to spend. Conflict Impact on Business Finance (Ethiopia): Ethiopia’s Development Bank will disburse €31m in soft loans for micro, small and medium enterprises in conflict-affected regions, prioritising women and youth-led firms. Workforce & AI Pay Pressure: New research argues AI’s earliest labour impact shows up as smaller paychecks rather than job losses, adding fuel to worker backlash.

EU Social Policy & SME Support: The European Commission has approved Malta’s €60.6m Social Climate Plan (2026–2032), with €45.4m from the Social Climate Fund, targeting vulnerable households and transport users plus help for small businesses shifting in the clean-energy transition, including energy-efficiency upgrades, community transport for 30,000+ vulnerable people, and support for micro-enterprises moving to electric vehicles. EU Regulation Watch: The Commission has excluded soybean seeds for sowing from the EU Deforestation Regulation scope, after recognising they sit in a separate value chain with negligible trade volumes—an SME-relevant win for seed movement and breeding. SME Tech & Cyber: New market coverage highlights fast-growing demand for application security and virtualization security as firms expand cloud and software use, with AI increasingly used for threat detection and vulnerability management. Digital Payments Growth: Mobile wallet market reporting points to continued expansion driven by smartphone adoption and secure payment features like NFC/QR and biometric checks—relevant for European merchants planning cashless upgrades. Ukraine War Impact: Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least seven to 13 people (reports vary) and forced Poland to scramble fighter jets; the conflict backdrop keeps supply chains and cross-border business planning under pressure. AI for SMEs: A piece on equipping small and medium enterprises with AI stresses practical adoption gaps and the need for human-supervised, SME-fit approaches rather than generic automation.