AGP Executive Report

SME Finance Boost (UK): iwoca has secured a new £250m debt facility with a leading UK bank and Waterfall Asset Management to expand lending to more small businesses, citing a surge in demand for mid-sized loans (50k–100k) and 58,000 loans worth £1.3bn issued in 2025. Embedded Lending (Germany): YouLend and REA Card are partnering to let card-processing merchants access working-capital offers directly via POS/SoftPOS, aiming to cut paperwork and speed decisions using card revenue data. AI & Business (Europe): HCLTech says it will deliver about 60% of IT work through in-house AI agents, with the rest handled by humans, as it pushes clients onto its software and AI platforms. Defense Tech (UK-Ukraine): Zelenskyy’s UK visit highlights new UK electronic warfare support (“Stone Cloak”) and potential steps toward Ukraine producing air-defense tech under license, with talks also expected to cover sanctions and next aid. Policy Pressure (EU/US Tech): A debate is heating up over whether the US should restrict access to open-source AI models from China, with critics warning bans could hurt competition and startups. Wildfire Impact (Southern Europe): A fast-moving wildfire near Bordeaux has displaced around 220,000 people, with Spain’s fires adding tens of thousands more—raising risks for local businesses and supply chains. Energy-Efficiency Market Signal: Heat pump water heater demand is forecast to grow sharply through 2035, reflecting continued European pressure to cut energy costs and emissions.

UK Business Support: Andy Burnham met major industry groups (including the CBI, British Chambers of Commerce and the Federation of Small Businesses) to push a new framework for employers, with a near-term 20% cut in costs for pubs, clubs and live music venues aimed at town-centre trade. SME Innovation Pressure: A UK survey of R&D-active SMEs says R&D tax relief reforms are discouraging innovation—62% cut R&D spend, and many delayed or cancelled projects due to uncertainty over payments. Ransomware Risk for Industry: A tracker reports 148 ransomware claims against Italian organizations in H1 2026, with manufacturing the most targeted sector. Consumer Protection & Pricing: Consumer NZ urges stronger rules against unfair trading practices and “dark patterns,” including hidden fees and misleading online pricing. Finance for Micro, Small Firms: Tanzania listed its first offshore shilling bond on the London Stock Exchange, with proceeds routed via NMB Bank to expand MSME lending. Trade Shock Watch: US forced-labor tariff moves are already facing lawsuits from small businesses, arguing the administration is stretching legal authority.

US Tariff Shock for SMEs: Two US small businesses have sued over Trump’s new 10%–12.5% tariffs on goods from 60 trading partners, arguing the administration is stretching legal powers under Section 301 and skipping the detailed country-by-country case required for forced-labour claims. Legal Backdrop: The lawsuits come as analysts say the “tariff wall” may be more durable after the Supreme Court’s earlier limits, setting up a fresh court fight that could keep costs and uncertainty high for importers and retailers. UK Business Cost Relief: In Britain, Prime Minister Andy Burnham is pitching a “new offer” to business groups, including a 20% business-rates cut for pubs, clubs and live music venues from April 2027, while local mayors and candidates debate how to tackle cost-of-living pressure and “dying high streets.” EU Fashion Waste Rules: The EU’s ban on large firms destroying unsold clothing and accessories (with small firms exempt until later) could ripple into Morocco’s textile supply chains and second-hand markets. UK AI Funding: The UK is launching two £60m AI research labs to back next-gen systems, including open-source approaches that could feed into future SME tools.

EU-backed Ethiopia fintech: Ethiopia formally launched the Ethiopian Digital Financial Service Providers Association, backed by the EU and UNCDF, to coordinate banks, payment switches, gateways, microfinance and mobile money players and push financial inclusion for women, youth and entrepreneurs. UK hospitality pressure: York’s popular Bison coffee spot will close on 6 August, with the owner citing tough trading and the strain on small businesses. Business competitiveness push (Mindanao): A focus on Investment Promotion Agencies and the Ease of Doing Business framework is reshaping Mindanao’s local economy, aiming to cut friction and boost competitiveness beyond traditional agriculture. Wildfire disruption in France & Spain: Major evacuations hit France near Bordeaux and Spain as climate-driven wildfires overwhelm response capacity, threatening homes and local commerce. Tariffs hit small firms (US): New US forced-labour tariffs face immediate lawsuits from small businesses, arguing the government didn’t properly justify how duties would meet its stated aims. Gender pay gap reporting push: Global Women urges political parties to require large employers to report gender pay gaps, aligning with emerging EU-style rules. Digital payments risk: Wise’s US bank charter bid was rejected by regulators over money-laundering and compliance concerns, while SMS verification providers face disruption after major platform shutdowns. EU sustainability rule ripple: As the EU bans large firms from destroying unsold clothes, the knock-on effects could reach Morocco’s textile trade and second-hand imports.

US Tariffs & Legal Fight: Trump’s new 10%–12.5% duties on imports from 60 trading partners (including the EU and UK) are already triggering lawsuits from two US small businesses, with critics saying the administration is trying to sidestep a Supreme Court defeat and needs more country-specific justification. UK Business Costs: Prime Minister Andy Burnham is pitching a “new offer” to business groups, including a 20% business rates relief for pubs, clubs and live music venues from April 2027, as hospitality groups push for faster, broader cost cuts. SME Tech & AI Research: The UK is funding two new AI research labs with up to £60m to back open-source AI and more efficient learning, aiming to translate breakthroughs into real-world impact for firms. Digital Trade & Data Tools: Canada has launched a standing defence drone supplier marketplace, letting startups and Indigenous businesses register via CanadaBuys for uncrewed systems procurement. Climate Pressure on Local Economies: Wildfires in France and Spain have forced massive evacuations, with authorities deploying aircraft and reshaping major events—an immediate hit to tourism and small local services. Local Growth via Tourism Ideas: In the US, a “Green Salamander Art Trail” is being used by small businesses to draw visitors and speed recovery after Hurricane Helene.

US trade shock for SMEs: Two US small businesses (Burlap & Barrel and Collective Horology) have filed a lawsuit to block Trump’s new forced-labour tariffs on 60 trading partners, arguing the administration is reusing a legal route that should require country-by-country justification. Tariff rates shift: The US also cut India’s proposed rate to 10% from 12.5% for about 70% of Indian exports after labour-rule engagement, giving India a relative edge. Legal fight ahead: Analysts say the Section 301 approach may be harder to overturn than earlier “Liberation Day” levies, but court challenges are already underway. AI and finance risk: A policy piece warns central banks to tighten oversight of AI in trading and lending, improve visibility into AI-driven correlations, and boost cyber resilience. UK business pressure: New PM Andy Burnham opened “No 10 North” in Manchester, while pub groups say business-rate cuts are only a first step. Local SME support (Philippines): The DTI added nine partners to its Supply Chain and Logistics Center to lower shipping costs and improve logistics info for MSMEs.

Tariff Shock for SMEs: Small businesses have filed the first lawsuit against Trump’s new Section 301 tariffs, arguing the administration acted “arbitrarily” by slapping near-uniform 10%–12.5% duties on 60 economies over forced-labour claims—while experts say this legal route may be harder to overturn than earlier tariff moves. Price Pressure Across Europe: The same tariff wave is expected to ripple into consumer prices for European-linked supply chains, with knock-on costs for everyday goods like clothing, electronics and household items. UK Hospitality Relief—But Pushback: Andy Burnham’s 20% business rates cut for pubs, clubs and live music venues is being welcomed as a “first step,” but pub groups warn it won’t reverse damage without wider business-rates reform. EU Digital Rules: The EU has alleged TikTok’s settings may expose children to predators and faces potential major fines under the Digital Services Act. War Hits Retail Logistics: Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russia’s Wildberries warehouses is escalating pressure on e-commerce supply chains—hurting sellers and ordinary consumers. AI Adoption Gap: UK SMEs are adopting AI fast, but many still lack confidence on ROI and practical benefits.

UK Hospitality Relief: Andy Burnham’s Labour government will cut business rates by 20% for pubs, clubs and live music venues from April next year, expected to save the typical pub about £1,100—though Liverpool restaurants and cafés say they’ve been left out. Tax Pressure Debate: The move is also sparking wider arguments about funding and whether VAT cuts and rates relief go far enough, with James May calling the pub VAT cut “not really noticeable.” Regional Power Shift: Burnham is launching No 10 North in Manchester, promising more devolution and a revived National Economic Council that includes regional mayors and aims to shape local growth with business input. SME Sentiment Watch: In the North East, 9 in 10 adults want more government support for small businesses, while owner growth expectations have fallen and fixed costs are the top worry. EU Business Context: Bulgaria’s coal-region Just Transition Fund will get a new SME support procedure with clearer, more objective criteria after audit findings on past irregularities. Tourism Costs & Tensions: Edinburgh’s visitor levy starts from July 24, while Majorca faces anti-tourism protests—both raising questions for small operators reliant on visitor spend. Trade Shock Risk: New US tariffs on forced-labour-related grounds hit 80+ countries, including the UK and EU, adding uncertainty for European exporters and importers.

Hospitality Relief in the UK: Andy Burnham’s government announced a 20% cut to business rates for pubs, clubs and live music venues in England from April 2027 (on top of a 15% cut earlier), expected to save a typical pub about £1,100 and help nearly 32,000 venues, though some landlords say it won’t move the needle and retail groups warn other high-street businesses are being left behind. SME Support via EU Funds in Bulgaria: Bulgaria’s Regional Development and Public Works Ministry plans a new, more transparent support procedure for SMEs in three coal regions under the Just Transition Fund, after an audit flagged subjective decisions and lack of transparency in the previous process. SME Survival and Growth Traps in Spain: A Spanish restructuring firm highlights how some profitable SMEs still end up in bankruptcy because growth can consume liquidity faster than it’s generated, with Spain seeing a sharp rise in insolvencies. Online Retail Under Fire (Ukraine–Russia): Ukraine’s drone attacks hit Wildberries warehouses in Russia, underlining how major e-commerce logistics hubs can become wartime targets with knock-on risks for smaller sellers. Trade Boost for Non-Traditional Exports: Ghana and the Netherlands signed an MoU to expand Ghana’s non-traditional exports to the EU, with horticulture flagged as a priority and logistics/compliance support included.

UK SME Relief Funding Row: Andy Burnham announced a 20% cut to business rates for pubs, clubs and live music venues, but Treasury officials quickly said the £100m plan isn’t fully funded yet, with ministers still “looking at” how to pay for it. EU Circular Rules for Fashion: The EU banned large firms from destroying unsold new clothes and shoes, pushing discounts, resale, repair or reuse instead; small firms are exempt for now, with medium-sized firms facing similar duties from 2030. Italy Insurance Gap Exposed: Sicily’s Cyclone Harry showed Italy’s mandatory disaster insurance can miss cyclone/storm-surge risks even when businesses hold required policies, leaving some SMEs with limited payouts. MSME Climate Finance in Sri Lanka: After Cyclone Ditwah, Sri Lanka is scaling faster climate and disaster risk financing for MSMEs, using a revolving fund model that disburses recovery loans within days. Trade Pressure on Small Exporters: India moved to ban forced-labour imports, raising compliance stakes for exporters; meanwhile, Canadian SMEs reportedly paused US orders ahead of new tariffs. SME Support Funding (Namibia): Namibia’s NIPDB urged eligible MSMEs to apply for grants up to N$100,000 plus coaching under its SME Fund before 24 July. SME Tech Skills Push (UK): An £800,000 AI Upskilling Challenge Fund in Barnsley seeks training providers to help small manufacturers and small businesses use AI.

UK Cost-of-Living Push: New PM Andy Burnham’s first week brought a bigger-than-expected inflation dip (June CPI 2.6%) plus moves to cut household bills, including VAT removal on electricity from October 1 and lower bus fares—though funding is raising eyebrows. Digital ID Scrapped: Burnham killed off “BritCard”/digital ID plans, with the reported £1.8bn price tag redirected to the electricity VAT cut, a blow for firms and services that expected universal ID take-up. EU Competition & Privacy: EU rulings tied to Android and the Digital Markets Act are worrying tech firms and could affect how third-party apps access permissions—raising practical security and privacy concerns for small businesses relying on safe customer data. SME Lending Dealmaking (UK): Iwoca hired Qatalyst Partners for a sale expected to value it at over £1bn, underlining continued investor appetite in SME finance. Cross-Border Trade Help (UK): eBay expanded international shipping support to the UK, aiming to reduce customs and returns friction for small sellers exporting to the EU and beyond. Germany Stress Signal: A study flags a sharp rise in insolvencies among German partnerships and corporations, pointing to tougher conditions for suppliers and local employers. Slovakia Logistics Boost: FedEx opened a new Košice facility to speed international processing and make exporting easier for smaller firms. EU Tourism Snapshot (France): France’s summer tourism appears stronger than feared, with booking data pointing to higher arrivals and accommodation demand. Protest Over Trade Deals (India): Samyukta Kisan Morcha staged protests demanding cancellation of FTAs with the US, EU, UK and others, arguing they could hurt farmers, MSMEs and food security.

UK Cost-of-Living Relief: Andy Burnham’s government plans to remove VAT from household electricity bills from 1 October, aiming to cut the Ofgem price-cap impact by about £45 a year, while business groups and MPs question whether the £850m package is fully funded. UK Business Leadership: Jonathan Reynolds is back as Business Secretary, with enterprise bodies urging faster support for the 5.7m small firms and warning delivery must match the pro-business rhetoric. EU Circular Fashion Rule: The EU’s ban on destroying unsold apparel and related items (under the ESPR framework) is now in force for large enterprises, pushing fashion SMEs to rethink excess stock and returns handling. EU Finance for SMEs (Spain): The EIB Group and Santander will unlock €1.43bn for Spanish SMEs and mid-caps, including €108m for women-led businesses and funding tied to the green transition. EU Deforestation Regulation Update: The Commission has exempted leather and hides from traceability duties, reducing compliance pressure for the sector while keeping beef and other cattle-derived products covered. Sustainable Stays Trend: Interhome data shows nearly 1 in 3 summer vacation-rental bookings across key European markets now carry sustainability labels, with Italy leading at 40.1%. Trade Tensions & SME Risk (India): India’s farmers’ SKM calls for nationwide protests against the India–US FTA, warning it could hurt small farmers and MSMEs via subsidised imports. Planning vs Data Centres (Scotland): A critique of the Cato hyperscale data centre fight argues Scotland’s planning system is being asked to handle national-scale energy and environmental impacts case-by-case, leaving communities debating piecemeal decisions.

UK Cost-of-Living Tax Cut: Britain’s new PM Andy Burnham will remove VAT from household electricity bills from 1 October, cutting typical bills by about £45 a year and funded by cancelling the £1.8bn Digital ID programme—though fixed-tariff customers may still see savings depend on how suppliers apply VAT. SME Hiring Pressure: UK vacancies fell again (down 7,000 to 712,000), with smaller firms driving the drop as costs rise and uncertainty bites. Business Leadership: Jonathan Reynolds returns as UK business secretary, welcomed by enterprise groups as a chance to back the 5.7m small businesses. Energy & Property Rates Clash: Logistics developer Panattoni warns Burnham’s plan to shift business rates onto large warehouses could raise consumer costs and hit growth. EU Circular Fashion Rule: From 19 July 2026, the EU’s ESPR framework restricts destroying unsold apparel, pushing brands to rethink excess stock. EU Deforestation Exemption: The Commission exempts leather and hides from the EU Deforestation Regulation’s traceability duties, easing compliance burdens for the sector. AI Governance for Procurement: US GSA’s updated AI safety clause narrows focus to protecting government data handled by large language models, including IP and prohibited uses. Cross-Border Payments Funding: Ant International raises $1.2bn Series A to scale cross-border digital payments for merchants and SMEs across multiple regions.

UK Cost-of-Living Relief: Andy Burnham’s government will cut VAT on household electricity bills from 1 October, expected to take about £45 off the typical annual bill and also extend support to eligible small businesses, charities and residential care homes. UK Labour Market Watch: Britain’s unemployment rate rose to 4.9% in the three months to May as payroll jobs fell by 85,000, with vacancies continuing to decline—another stress signal for SMEs hiring and planning. Late-Payments Pressure on SMEs: The new UK leadership faces a key small-business agenda item: the Late Payments Bill, aimed at capping payment terms at 60 days for large firms and strengthening enforcement against serial late payers. Fashion & Retail Compliance: The EU’s ban on destroying unsold clothing pushes fashion groups to rethink excess stock—good news for resale and circular models, but a cost challenge for brands. Energy Transition Push: The “Electrify Now” campaign launches to speed up electrification, backed by wind and renewables groups and supported by the European Commission and several governments. Tech Startup Momentum (Lithuania): Lithuania’s tech sector keeps scaling fast, with Vilnius’s “Cyber City” symbolising a shift toward homegrown and inward investment-driven growth. Client Protection in Finance: SEEDS Fincap (India) touts Gold-level client protection certification after an audit, highlighting how compliance standards are becoming a competitive differentiator for SME lenders.

UK SME policy shake-up: After Andy Burnham became prime minister, Peter Kyle was sacked, leaving the Small Business Protections (Late Payments) Bill without its champion; the bill would cap payment terms at 60 days and strengthen the Small Business Commissioner, a big deal for cashflow-stretched suppliers. Cost of borrowing hits firms: Burnham’s “new economic model” pledge pushed UK gilt yields higher, which typically feeds into loan and mortgage pricing—another pressure point for owner-managers. Admin burden spotlight (UK): American Express and Small Business Saturday UK found owners spend ~11 hours a week on admin/finance versus ~3.6 days a month on growth, with paperwork the top growth blocker. High-street and retail pressure (UK): Retail groups urged Burnham to back high streets with more than promises—especially on business rates, rents, and employment costs. EU digital enforcement: The EU fined AliExpress a record €550m under the Digital Services Act for failing to stop illegal goods, a reminder for small sellers about compliance risk. Housing finance lesson (Rwanda): Rwanda’s climate-linked green construction is advancing, but mortgages remain out of reach for most households—highlighting the gap between sustainable building and homeownership access. Local business climate (Spain/World Cup): Spain’s 2026 win in New Jersey drew large crowds and spending, but the real SME takeaway is how event demand can boost footfall for local traders.

EU Circular Fashion Rules: From 19 July 2026, large fashion firms in the EU can’t destroy unsold clothing, shoes and accessories, pushing resale, donation, repair and remanufacturing instead (medium firms get until 2030; micro and small are initially exempt). AI Governance in Greece: Greece has set a national framework to implement the EU AI Act, with oversight and penalties and a focus on higher-risk uses. UK Small-Firm Growth Wobble: A new UK survey flags weak growth expectations for small businesses, with only a small share expecting expansion. Cloud Billing Shock (SME-relevant): AWS customers reported wildly inflated estimated bills after a billing-system glitch; Amazon says invoices weren’t changed, but the scare underlines how fragile cashflow planning can be when estimates go wrong. EU Fashion Compliance Pressure: The ban is expected to force brands to rethink returns, discounting and excess stock management, with narrow exceptions only. SME Finance & Inclusion (Egypt): Women made up 53% of Egypt’s microfinance beneficiaries in Q1 2026, highlighting ongoing demand for accessible credit. Trade & SME Impact (Philippines–EU): The Philippines is aiming to wrap EU FTA talks before November, with agriculture still the main sticking point—an issue that can reshape SME supply chains and procurement.